All along 2011 the Arab revolutions have evolved in a different way in the different countries concerned. Below is a summary of the course the different countries have followed until December 2011:
TUNISIA
•17 Dec 10 Tarek Bouazizi set himself on fire after being abused by the police [& died on 4 Jan 11]
• Demonstrations started and progressively increased. Repressed
• 14 Jan dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia
[300 deaths estimated by UN from 17 Dec to 14 Jan]
• 15 Jan Fouad Mebazaa is appointed President & Mohammed Ghannouchi Prime Minister (PM)
•27 Feb appointment of a second government led by Ghannouchi
• 9 Mar appointment of a government led by Beji Essebsi & dissolution of RDC [Ben Ali’s party].
• 15 Mar creation of the High Instance presided by Yahd Ben Achour to act as consultant to the political process [dissolved on 13 Oct]
• 8 Jun postponement of elections due for 24 Jul
• 23 Oct elections to the Constituent Assembly. Peacefully held. Ennahda Islamist party got 89 seats out of 217
• 22 Nov appointment of Mustafa Ben Jafar of Ettakanol as President of the Constituent Assembly
•23 Nov appointment of Moncef Marzouki of CPR as President of Tunisia & Hamadi Jebali of Ennahda as PM of the transitional government.
TASK AHEAD: drawing up of a new constitution in approximately one year.
MODEL: people-led revolution
EGYPT
• 6 Jun 10 Khaled Saeed was beaten to death by the police
• 25 Jan 11 beginning of demonstrations in
Tahrir Square
Tahrir Square
• 31 Jan appointment of Ahmed Shafik as PM
• 2 Feb acute violence
• 11 Feb dictator Hosni Mubarak resigns and leaves Cairo
[840 deaths estimated from 25 Jan to 11 Feb]
•13 Feb Supreme Council of Armed Forces(SCAF) abolishes praliament & 1971 Constitution. SCAF’s head Field Marshall Mohamed Tantawi appointed acting Head of State
• 3 Mar appointment of Essam Sharaf as PM
• 19 Mar constittutional referendum: 77% in favour of changes
•27 May biggest demonstration since February asking for acceleration of process & no military trials on civilians
• 3 Aug Mubarak’s trial begins
• 9 Oct acute violence against Christian Copts by the security forces [25 deaths]
• 19-23 Nov acute violence after SCAF’s announcement that it will indefinitely retain powers over the military areas [41 deaths estimated]
• 24 Nov appointment of Kamal Ganzouri as PM
• 28 Nov start of parliamentary elections. Peacefully held
TASK AHEAD: presidential elections before summer 2012
MODEL: people-led revolution steered by the military
LIBYA
• 17 Feb 11 demonstrations started in Benghazi & Bayda; clashes started
• 26 Feb UNSC Resolution 1970 urges end of violence
• 27 Feb establishment of the National Transitional Council (NTC) in Benghazi
• 3 Mar NTC declared itself the sole representative of Libyans & Mustafa Adbul Jalil appointed Chairman of NTC
• 12 Mar Arab League calls for a no fly zone over Libya
[1000 to 2000 deaths estimated since the beginning of demonstrations until then]
• 17 Mar UNSC Resolution 1973 allows a no-fly zone
• 19 Mar multi-state coalition started military intervention
• 23 Mar Mahmoud Jibril appointed Chair of NTC’s Executive Board
• 31 Mar NATO took over control of no fly zone.
• 1Jul France
• 29 Aug AbdalHakim Belhaj, senior Al-Qaeda commander, takes control of Tripoli
• 20 Oct Muammar Gaddafi is killed by the NTC forces
[Death toll estimated in 30000 to 50000]
• 23 Oct Jibril resigns
• 31 Oct NATO ends operations
• 31 Oct NTC appointsAbdurrahim El-Keib as new interim PM
• 19 Nov Saif al Islam Gaddafi captured
• 22 Nov new Government formed
TASK AHEAD: elections in 8 months for a Constituent Assembly
MODEL: civil war with foreign-led military intervention
YEMEN
• 27 Jan 11 demonstrations started in Sanaa
• 3 Feb Tawakel Karman called for a Day of Rage
• 5 Apr GCC starts mediation efforts with support of UN Special Adviser for Yemen
• 22 May President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused for the third time in one month to sign GCC-mediated agreement
• 23 May the al-Ahmar led Hashid tribal federation turned to support the oppostition. Heavy street-fighting ensued.
• 28 May truce established
• 29 May military started operation to crush demonstrators in Ta’izz.
• 3 Jun Saleh wounded in presidential compound attack, and was taken to Saudi Arabia
• 19 Sep government troops opened fire at demonstrators
• 23 Sep Saleh returns to Yemen
• 21 Oct UNSC Resolution 2014
• UN Benomar goes again to Yemen
• 23 Nov Saleh signs in Riyadh
• 23 Nov Abd RAbbuh Al-Hadi becomes acting President.
[Death toll estimated in 2800]
TASK AHEAD: Presidential elections on 21 Feb 2012 with al-Hadi as consensus candidate of both opposition & regime
MODEL: people-led revolution with GCC + UN international mediation
SYRIA
• 26 Jan 11 demonstrations started in Syria
• 25 Mar protests escalate, especially in Deraa, with a 100000 people demonstration & 20 killed
• 31 Mar Presidente Bashar al Assad announces reforms and release of 200 political prisoners
• Demonstrations and their violent repression continue
• 20 Jun President al Assad speaks of national dialogue in a speech
• 23 Aug Syrian National Council (SNC) set up in Antalya , Turkey
• 2 Oct Burhan Ghalioun became the secular Chairperson of the SNC
• 2 Nov Arab League Initiative
• 12 Nov Arab League Council suspends Syrian membership & threatens with sanctions
• 27 Nov Arab League [without Iraq
• 28 Nov UN Commission of Inquiry calculates the deathtoll at over 4000 people
• 2 Dec UN Human Rights Council issued a resolution condemning Syria
TASK AHEAD: urgent mediation to achieve implementation of Arab League initiative
MODEL: people-led revolution, which is degenerating into civil war; and which can present even bigger uncertainties if foreign-led military intervention takes place
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