Monday 27 February 2012

The Syrian hell

26.02.2012

In January 2011 the “Arab awakening” started. As it caught the whole world by surprise, there was no possibility to interfere in its first offspring: the Tunisian revolution. It has been the only clear and peaceful case, where people have demonstrated to express their rejection for their dictator, and the dictator has fled. All the other processes have been full of interferences and manipulations from one side or another; and thus the violence and the deaths. And Syria is no exception.

What happens in Syria has evolved from a scenario of violent repression of peaceful demonstrations by an authoritarian regime in March 2011 [as all dictators in the area used to do, and some dictators-monarchs, like the ones in Bahrain, still do] to a scenario of civil war which we currently have.

Why has it degenerated and how?

1. Firstly, the errors committed in Libya have deprived the West of legal efficient mechanisms to act in Syria. United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1973 of March 2011 received the full support of the international community. That resolution enabled to act in Libya to protect civilians, on the basis of the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P), an international principle that had taken many years of immense efforts to become a reality. UNSC Resolution 1973 enshrined R2P, called for international mediation and didn’t explicitly seek regime change. Under the umbrella of that Resolution, and looking down on mediation efforts like those of the African Union, different international actors [France, Turkey, Qatar-Saudi Arabia] started arming the opposition in a conflict that very soon became a civil war, and with NATO coverage, achieved its target of regime change in October 2011 after the assassination of Muammar Gaddafi. Some of the countries that wholeheartedly voted in favour of using the R2P in Libya oppose now being misled again, and they use their veto right at the UNSC. One of the few efficient legal mechanisms to protect civilians in case of violations of human rights has thus evaporated.

2. Secondly, the only strategy followed by the West and the Gulf States towards Syria has been to corner the regime imposing on it conditions from a position of arrogance. And the regimen, using a chess expression, has completely castled. Since May 2011 the West demanded Assad to resign [and at that time nothing similar was demanded from the Yemeni President Saleh who had a similar death toll on his personal account]. Later on, Qataris and Saudis took the lead in the Arab League and started increasing the pressure (an observation mission that as soon as it started showing results was cancelled; boycott of Syrian economy; suspension of Syria from the Arab League, etc.). And the Gulf countries have their own agenda: they are interested in chaos spreading along countries like Iraq or Libya [that way they have no rivals in terms of oil production]; they are interested in Syria being in Sunnite hands [as the current Alawite-Shi’ia regime is their worst enemy (Shi’ia Iran)’s ally]; and they are interested in complicating the democratization processes in the Arab world, so that the idea of Arabs not being capable of living under democratic conditions prevails, and thus they, as autocratic monarchies, may continue to exist happily as islets of autocracy in the world.

3. Thirdly, the excessive wait before acting has allowed for parallel subversive strategies to flourish. As the West was conscious –thanks to some degree of good sense emanating from the economic crisis- that it could not open up several scenarios at the same time, it opted for a sequential strategy, first Libya and then the rest. In the meantime, the most impatient international actors [again France, Turkey and the binomial Qatar-Saudi Arabia] have sought for alternative strategies, more and more violent as time passes.

3.1. At the beginning, Turkey and France tried to replicate the success that the Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC) had had [the TNC was a cosmetically created entity to present the Libyan unity, a unity that in reality never existed as it has been shown by the chaos existing in that country at present]. They supported the Syrian National Council (SNC), led by a Syrian-French; and sought for the international community to recognize them as the sole legitimate interlocutors, so that they could thus start a similar process to that which had taken place in Libya. They haven’s succeeded as we have learnt quite quickly from the Libyan experience [the TNC didn’t represent all, and nor does the SNC]; and because the SNC leaves outside of its remit nearly all minorities in a society which is much more complex than the Libyan.

3.2. The following attempt, sponsored by Turkey, was to open its territory to the deserters of the Syrian army, and organize from there the armed resistance through the Syrian Free Army. We are still there; and thus the violence, and the civil war.

3.3. The third attempt, sponsored by the binomial Qatar-Saudi Arabia [the two countries that ideologically are more extreme in the Sunni world, whose ideology –wahabism- is the one that justifies first and with more strength jihadism and suicide to kill the enemy], is taking the upper hand for some months already, I guess due to their impatience towards the Western stamina-free attitude. They are financially supporting the jihadists to infiltrate Syria and act. Three terrible suicidal attacks on 24 December 2011, 6 January 2012 and 10 February are a witness to that. Even the USA’s Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, warned in mid-February that Al Qaeda could have infiltrated into Syria. And although people don’t like to remember it, Al Qaeda is the heir to the jihadists that went to Afghanistan in the 70s and the 80s to fight against the Soviets, financed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the USA. Later on, they turned against their masters, but ideologically they are still wahabis. Among the jihadists entering Syria there are many Libyans, as it is important not to forget that a considerable part of the Libyan TNC are jihadists, among whom is Belhaj, who have fought against the West in Afghanistan. First, they kill our soldiers in Afghanistan, and parallel to that we support them to overthrow Gaddafi… It’s the world up side down. That is why things are the way they are.

This civil war can still take thousands of lives, although we should put it in perspective. Libya before the intervention had around 6000 deaths, now their death toll is close to 50.000 [and it continues, as reprisals and executions haven’t finished]. So an international intervention would only make the numbers in Syria approach the Libyan numbers of shame.

Having come to this point, can something be done? Yes. I think two things: (1) First, we need to stop accepting double standards; to need to measure every one with the same stick; and we need to demand everyone to move forward towards democratizing their societies. Saudi Arabia harshly represses Shi’ias on their territory, but we don’t demand democracy from them. To be a woman in Syria, even under the bombs, and to be a woman in Saudi Arabia, are two different universes, which model do those women want to prevail in the region? I am sure the first one. To demand change to some and not to others, will only foster the thousand-year-old rows that exist in that region; (2) Secondly, to give a chance to mediation. In Libya it was underestimated from a position of arrogance. Here, to this day, Russia has contacts with the regime and with many of the opposition groups and could mediate to reach a negotiated solution for transition. If pressure is put on the SNC to speak to the regime it can work. Or at least it can and should be tried. The problem are some countries that want to take instant pictures of their victories, for example, will French pride allow some months prior to the Presidential elections to put enough pressure on the SNC to make it talk to the regime through the Russians? It is really sad to see that the lives of Syrian citizens depend on the vested interests of the Gulf monarchies and some other actors, but it is the reality we have created: a profoundly unjust world, full of double standards and of manipulations of all sorts.

Friday 30 December 2011

Drumbeats of war against Iran, déjà vu of what happened in Iraq

Executive summary: The drumbeats of war against Iran we are seeing since the autumn of 2011 are a déjà vu of what happened in Iraq in 2003. I think the ultimate cause in both cases was and is the wish of Israel to distract international attention, and to avoid committing to serious peace negotiations with the Palestinians. The recent IAEA report does not present evidence that Iran has a nuclear military programme. A different thing is the manipulated and interested  diffusion of the contents of that report, which is been done at present. I plea to demand Israel to sign the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as a first step to start putting things right in the region, instead of blindly rushing towards the umpteenth war.

Is recent history repeating itself? Are we witnessing at the end of 2011 similar drumbeats of war against Iran to the ones that took place against Iraq in 2002? I think so, and in both cases the actors, the apparent causes, the deeper motivations, and the dynamics used are similar too.

In 2002 Iraq had already been over a decade under no-fly zones and sanctions, but that hadn’t decreased Saddam Hussein’s power. He was a very inconvenient neighbour for the absolute monarchies of the Persian Gulf since the invasion of Kuwait in 1991; and he had stopped being a useful pawn for the West. What I couldn’t quite understand then was the unusual haste which the West had begun to display in the autumn of 2002 in order to try to consolidate a body of accusations against Iraq linked to its possession of weapons of mass destruction (accusations, which, afterwards, as it is widely known, proved to be groundless), to justify an illegal invasion which started in March 2003. Although many analysts then and afterwards have linked the allied military intervention to the desire for control over Iraq’s oil reserves (being maybe the best known analyst the former USA federal reserve chairman Alan Greenspan in his memoirs), I think the trigger of an attack taking place precisely then, and not a couple of years earlier or later, was linked to Israel.

On the one hand, Israel wanted to get rid of a quasi-neighbour, Iraq, which had lost its added value since it had stopped attacking Iran, and had turned inconvenient, on the top of which he was a supporter of the Palestinian cause. Israel was starting to lose patience with Western measures which didn’t seem to give any results, and decided to take part in the scuffle: Israel started disseminating the suspicion that Iraq was liked to Al Qaeda –suspicions that have never been proven true in hindsight-; that behind the attempt to shoot down an Israeli chartered plane as it departed the Mombasa airport in November 2002 was Al Qaeda; and that it was necessary to act both against Al Qaeda, and against the regimes that made the organization’s work and the transit of weapons possible, pinpointing at Iraq. In Israel the drumbeats of war against Iraq started to sound in the autumn of 2002. And the operation started in March 2003. On the other hand, and in my opinion this is the key, Israel sought with a military intervention in the Gulf to distract international attention from the Middle East peace process, avoiding thus international pressure that would force her to take serious steps towards peace, amidst the uprise of the Second Intifada.

I deem that what is happening now with Iran is a slavish copy of the above, a déjà vu. Let’s see the similarities in the actors, the motivations and the mechanisms.

In 2011 Iran has spent more than three decades under sanctions, but that hasn’t decreased the power of the theocratic regime. It is a very inconvenient neighbour for some of the absolute monarchies in the Persian Gulf, above all Saudi Arabia; and is a country that had stopped being useful to the West and Israel since the toppling of the Shah [by the way, the Shah was the son of a field Marshall who had proclaimed himself Shah, so there was no royal blood there, irrespective of the packaging of glamour the West had wanted to give him]. Iran’s oil reserves have been estimated as the world’s third largest. However, why are there drumbeats of war precisely now and not two years ago or in two years time?

I think the key again is Israel. On the one hand, Israel is becoming impatient with Western measures towards Iran which Israel considers not expeditious enough [the targeted killings Israel carries out in Dubai or Gaza give more expeditious results, although the nuance that they are illegal is intentionally obviated]. On the other hand, for the first time in many years there is genuine international pressure for the Middle East peace talks to resume marked by the Quartet Declaration of 23 September 2011, under whose aegis various meetings of the parties (Israelis and Palestinians) separately with the Quartet representatives have taken place since then, and the first deadline for concrete proposals comes up on the 26 of January 2012. 

Hans Blix Blix was the head of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) for Iraq from March 2000 to June 2003. UNMOVIC sought for weapons of mas destruction in the country; found none; and reported extensively on its findings. Nevertheless, the manipulation of classified information and of the media convinced in 2003 some Governments of the need to go to war; and even though in hindsight it has been proven that there were no weapons of mass destruction (as UNMVIC had proven), and the war has caused more than 100.000 deaths, it doesn’t matter. No one has been or will be brought to justice for that. If the recipe “manipulation +spin” worked then, why shouldn’t it work now? And I think that is precisely the game which is being played at present, to replicate with Iran the recipe applied with success to Iraq, and which had such meagre collateral costs for its ideologues [allowing at the same time to postpone the need for a solution to the Middle East conflict].

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s report on Iran issued in November 2011, and specifically its Annex 1, does not present evidence or conclude that Iran has a nuclear military programme. What has happened after the release of the IAEA’s report has been in my opinion a clumsy manipulation of information to make people believe that Iran will truly have shortly the capability to build nuclear weapons; moving the machineries of war (which in times of economic downturn tend to rub their hands with the profits they envisage); and starting a new war. Most of the deaths will neither be from the USA, nor Israel, nor Europe. They will be Muslims from the region. And Israel will gain time again to continue building its illegal settlements on occupied Palestinian land that will render the two-State solution non-viable. And, en passant, USA will have to face a war in the middle of its electoral campaign, which will eliminate the possibilities of President Obama being re-elected, the USA President most seriously committed to the peace process since the time of President Carter. And a homeland for the Palestinian people will be a chimera, a pipe dream, for another generation to come. Are we truly going to continue buying into these stories? Until when? We can’t turn a blind eye, and let a new conflict sweep us into the vortex of war for the umpteenth time, only and only to allow Israel to avoid facing in depth and seriously its historic responsibility, as the occupying power, to give a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli dispute.

Dialogue with Iran since 2003 to this day has not been a dialogue among equals. It has sought the imposition of Western views on Iran. To continue stubbornly along the path of imposition, cornering, and manipulation (both of the negotiating dynamics and of the subsequent information) will not solve the problem. We will just be using ad nauseam the same techniques of hard power.  Why don’t we shift our mindset once and for all? The environment is changing. The third Arab revolution will allow those peoples to start thinking independently. Let’s row all of us in the same direction; let’s call things by their right names; and let’s demand all countries in the region to abide by the same parameters, that is, that all countries (and by all I mean all) abide by international law. Iran has signed the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and so have all the Arab countries in the region. The only country that hasn’t done it, irrespective of the repeated calls for it both by Iran and by the Arab countries, is Israel. Let’s stop inventing new stories only and only to avoid facing up to historic responsibilities. Let’s put the first building block in the region in terms of real justice by demanding Israel to sign the NPT, as Israel has nuclear weapons in Dimona, which escape all control. No to allow anyone, absolutely anyone, to be above international law is the best way to avoid creating resentments arising from inequalities, and the best way to start new dynamics in the Middle East and the world.

Thursday 29 December 2011

Epilogue and prologue

What has 2011 meant for the Arab world?
As an epilogue to these series of texts on the third Arab revolution which started in 2011 (after the first one in 1916 and the second one in the 50s), it can be said that 2011 has implied for the Arab world:
- the beginning of the end (only the beginning yet) of the Arab exception, according to which the Arab world was ruled by dictators, but vested interests forced us to turn a blind eye on this fact. Only one country, Tunisia, has managed a peaceful transition nearly free from outside interferences. In the others, all sort of interferences have been the rule.
- the beginning of a process whereby the Arab youth sides with democracy, the rule of law and fundamental freedoms, including equality between men and women, specially in countries like Tunisia or Egypt.
- the exposure to light of internal incoherencies: (1) the existence of absolute monarchies, whose peoples ask for reform and for an evolution towards a model of parliamentary monarchies, with popular demonstrations which are violently repressed, and with Saudi Arabia as the main champion of resistance to change, but as they are monarchies  we still turn a blind eye; (2) the renewed explosion of the thousand year old dilemma between Sunnism and Shi’ism, with Saudi Arabia leading the historical animosity against Iranian Shi’ism, exacerbated since the autumn of 2011 by the decision of different international actors (USA, UK, Canada and Israel) to corner Iran even more, if possible; and (3) an Israel that continues to accelerate the building of illegal settlements in occupied Palestinian land, with utter impunity, and without any interest in or prospects of peace negotiations progressing.

What can the future bring to the Arab world?
The prologue of what will come will depend mainly on how the dichotomy between resistance to change vs democratization is resolved, subject in turn to human-political imponderables both regional and international and to powerful vested interests:
-  the main hurdle in the years to come is to continue allowing and supporting Arab monarchies that are dictatorships that, on the one hand, hinder democratic reforms inside their countries and, on the other hand, channel resources towards the most reactionary forces in the other Arab countries in state of ferment.
- the other great hurdle is to continue allowing Israel to act with total impunity against international law.
Possible scenarios:
- the worst: the beginning of a war against Iran, given the coincidence of anti-Iranian interest both in Saudi Arabia (to eliminate the Shi’ia enemy) and Israel (to eliminate the only regional actor that has the willingness and capability of opposing Israeli plans to colonize all Palestinian occupied territories to render a two state solution non-viable). It would be a similar alliance to the one between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and USA to take the power away from pro-Soviet Governments in Afghanistan in the 80s; or the coalition of the willing to remove Sadam Hussein in Iraq in 2003 [the excuse then: weapons of mass destruction, that Iraq never had; the excuse now: nuclear weapons that Iran doesn’t have].
- the best: that Saudi Arabia understands that it can’t remain eternally an island of iron dictatorship and democratises internally, and that it becomes aware of the important and positive regional role it can play in the Arab world, similar to the one Saudi King Faisal played in 1974 in support of the Palestinian cause; and that Israel, forced by a change in regional attitudes, understands that in the long term it is in its benefit to sign peace with Palestine, and sings it.

Sunday 25 December 2011

This third Arab revolution during 2011

All along 2011 the Arab revolutions have evolved in a different way in the different countries concerned. Below is a summary of the course the different countries have followed until December 2011:

TUNISIA

•17 Dec 10 Tarek Bouazizi set himself on fire after being abused by the police [& died on 4 Jan 11]
• Demonstrations started and progressively increased. Repressed
• 14 Jan dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia
[300 deaths estimated by UN from 17 Dec to 14 Jan]
• 15 Jan Fouad Mebazaa is appointed President & Mohammed Ghannouchi Prime Minister (PM)
•27 Feb appointment of a second government led by Ghannouchi
• 9 Mar appointment of a government led by Beji Essebsi & dissolution of RDC [Ben Ali’s party].
• 15 Mar creation of the High Instance presided by Yahd Ben Achour to act as consultant to the political process [dissolved on 13 Oct]
• 8 Jun postponement of elections due for 24 Jul
• 23 Oct elections to the Constituent Assembly. Peacefully held. Ennahda Islamist  party got 89 seats out of 217
• 22 Nov appointment of Mustafa Ben Jafar of Ettakanol as President of the Constituent Assembly
•23 Nov appointment of Moncef Marzouki of CPR as President of Tunisia & Hamadi Jebali of Ennahda as PM of the transitional government.
TASK AHEAD: drawing up of a new constitution in approximately one year.
MODEL: people-led revolution

EGYPT
• 6 Jun 10 Khaled Saeed was beaten to death by the police
• 25 Jan 11 beginning of demonstrations in
Tahrir Square
• 31 Jan appointment of Ahmed Shafik as PM
• 2 Feb acute violence
• 11 Feb dictator Hosni Mubarak resigns and leaves Cairo
[840 deaths estimated from 25 Jan to 11 Feb]
•13 Feb Supreme Council of Armed Forces(SCAF) abolishes praliament & 1971 Constitution. SCAF’s head Field Marshall Mohamed Tantawi appointed acting Head of State
• 3 Mar appointment of Essam Sharaf as PM
• 19 Mar constittutional referendum: 77% in favour of changes
•27 May biggest demonstration since February asking for acceleration of process & no military trials on civilians
• 3 Aug Mubarak’s trial begins
• 9 Oct acute violence against Christian Copts by the security forces [25 deaths]
• 19-23 Nov acute violence after SCAF’s announcement that it will indefinitely retain powers over the military areas [41 deaths estimated]
• 24 Nov appointment of Kamal Ganzouri as PM
• 28 Nov start of parliamentary elections. Peacefully held
TASK AHEAD: presidential elections before summer 2012
MODEL: people-led revolution steered by the military

LIBYA
• 17 Feb 11 demonstrations started in Benghazi & Bayda; clashes started
• 26 Feb UNSC Resolution 1970 urges end of violence
• 27 Feb establishment of the National Transitional Council (NTC) in Benghazi
• 3 Mar NTC declared itself the sole representative of  Libyans &  Mustafa Adbul Jalil appointed Chairman of NTC
• 12 Mar Arab League calls for a no fly zone over Libya
[1000 to 2000 deaths estimated since the beginning of demonstrations until then]
• 17 Mar UNSC Resolution 1973 allows a no-fly zone
• 19 Mar  multi-state coalition started military intervention
• 23 Mar Mahmoud Jibril appointed Chair of NTC’s Executive Board
• 31 Mar NATO took over control of no fly zone.
• 1Jul France admits having being arming NTC, after disclosure from French newspaper Le Figaro
• 29 Aug AbdalHakim Belhaj, senior Al-Qaeda commander, takes control of Tripoli
• 20 Oct Muammar Gaddafi is killed by the NTC forces
[Death toll estimated in 30000 to 50000]
• 23 Oct Jibril resigns
• 31 Oct NATO ends operations
• 31 Oct NTC appointsAbdurrahim El-Keib as new interim PM
• 19 Nov Saif al Islam Gaddafi captured
• 22 Nov new Government formed
TASK AHEAD: elections in 8 months for a Constituent Assembly
MODEL: civil war with foreign-led military intervention
YEMEN
• 27 Jan 11 demonstrations started in Sanaa
• 3 Feb Tawakel Karman called for a Day of Rage
• 5 Apr GCC starts mediation efforts with support of UN Special Adviser for Yemen, Jamal Benomar
• 22 May President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused for the third time in one month to sign GCC-mediated agreement
• 23 May the al-Ahmar led Hashid tribal federation turned to support the oppostition. Heavy street-fighting ensued.
• 28 May truce established
• 29 May military started operation to crush demonstrators in Ta’izz.
• 3 Jun Saleh wounded in presidential compound attack, and was taken to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment.
• 19 Sep government troops opened fire at demonstrators
• 23 Sep Saleh returns to Yemen
• 21 Oct UNSC Resolution 2014
• UN Benomar goes again to Yemen to continue trying to mediate.
• 23 Nov Saleh signs in Riyadh the GCC plan for political transition ìn return for immunity from prosecution.
• 23 Nov Abd RAbbuh Al-Hadi becomes acting President.
[Death toll estimated in 2800]
TASK AHEAD: Presidential elections on 21 Feb 2012 with al-Hadi as consensus candidate of both opposition & regime
MODEL: people-led revolution with GCC +  UN international mediation

SYRIA
• 26 Jan 11 demonstrations started in Syria
• 25 Mar protests escalate, especially in Deraa, with a 100000 people demonstration & 20 killed
• 31 Mar Presidente Bashar al Assad announces reforms and release of 200 political prisoners
• Demonstrations and their violent repression continue
• 20 Jun President al Assad speaks of national dialogue in a speech
• 23 Aug Syrian National Council (SNC) set up in Antalya, Turkey, formed mainly by Islamists
• 2 Oct Burhan Ghalioun became the secular Chairperson of the SNC
• 2 Nov Arab League Initiative
• 12 Nov Arab League Council suspends Syrian membership  & threatens with sanctions
• 27 Nov Arab League [without Iraq and Leabanon’s support] approuves an asset freeze and a trade embargo
• 28 Nov UN Commission of Inquiry calculates the deathtoll at over 4000 people
• 2 Dec UN Human Rights Council issued a resolution condemning Syria
TASK AHEAD: urgent mediation to achieve implementation of Arab League initiative
MODEL: people-led revolution, which is degenerating into civil war; and which can present even bigger uncertainties if foreign-led military intervention takes place

The three Arab revolutions

Irrespective of the term coined by the press to name what it happening in the Arab world since the end of 2010, the “Arab Spring”, this revolution is neither an isolated historical fact, nor the first, but it is the third revolutionary phase that the Arab world has experienced, being the first the short-lived 1916-1918 Arab revolution; the second the Pan-Arabic 1954-1970 revolution, which came abruptly to an end through reactionary coups; and this third one, which started on 17 December 2010, when a young unemployed Tunisian, Mohamed Bouazizi, immolated himself in Tunis.

1. The first Arab revolution: 1916-1918

The first Arab revolution was started by the last person who held the position of “Sharif al-Mecca” (or “Noble of Mecca”, an institution that had been in custody of the holy place of Islam, Mecca, since the X century C.E.), Hussein bin Ali. Hussein bin Ali started the first Arab revolution in 1916, during the First World War (WWI), with the aim of granting independence to the Arab lands stretching from Syria to Yemen, which were still controlled at the time by a collapsing Ottoman Empire. In theory, Hussein’s plans had the acquiescence of the United Kingdom, through what has been labelled as McMahon-Hussein correspondence[1], being McMahon at the time the British High Commissioner in Cairo.  

The Arab rebels fought against the Ottomans in the Arabian Peninsula on the coastal area of the Red Sea during 1916 and 1917, until they seized Aqaba port in July 1917. In 1918, they successfully sabotaged on several occasions the Ottoman railway lines to Medina. Finally, in September that year they reached Damascus with the intention of liberating it.  T.E. Lawrence (Lawrence of Arabia), who had been working for the British Government as an intelligence officer in Cairo since 1914, helped coordinate since 1916 the supply of British arms to the rebels.

Nevertheless, Frances’s and UK’s vested interests materialized in the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement[2] by which both countries, with the acquiescence of the Imperial Russia, distributed among themselves their respective areas of influence in the Middle East in the post-Ottoman scenario. That agreement played against the success of this first Arab revolution, inasmuch as, having finished WWI, Franco-British “Real Politik” got the upper hand; and the great independent Arab state that had been promised was finally never created.

2. The second Arab revolution: the Pan-Arabic: 1954-1970

In the middle of the XX century, the Arab world experience a wave of anti-colonialist revolutions, that forced France and UK to quit the Arab countries they were still occupying either directly or thorough monarchs under their influence.

Thus, Morocco became independent of France and Spain in 1956; Algiers of France in 1962; Tunisia of France in 1956; in Libya Muamar el Gaddafi overthrew in 1969 the monarchy of King Idris I that had been established by the UK; in Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew in 1952 the monarchy of King Faruk I that had been established by the UK; Syria and Lebanon became independent of France in 1946; in Iraq General Abdel Karim Kassem overthrew the monarchy that the UK had established with Faysal I; in Iran General Mohammed Mussadaq overthrew in 1951 the Sha Reza Pahlavi [and Reza Pahlavi in turn was the son of another General who in 1921 had overthrown Sha Ahmed and in 1925 had proclaimed himself Sha of Persia]; in North Yemen the monarchy had been overthrown in 1962; and South Yemen had a Communist Government from 1967 to 1990, and in the 1960s it joined the Pan-Arabic movement led by Gamal Abdel Nasser.

In this period of Pan-Arabic and liberating effervescence from the colonial yoke, which were the 1950s and the 1960s in the Arab and Persian worlds led by Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt, important self-reaffirming milestones took place, like the nationalization of Suez’s Canal, or the alignment, in the framework of the Cold War dynamics, with the USSR.

Although nearly all Arab leaders of that time were military [it must be noted that the Armies were one of the few institutions that allowed at that time social mobility in the Arab world], they established liberal political models, which allowed, for the first and only time in the history of nearly all those countries, for their populations to enjoy wide public liberties, similar to the concept of Western democracy, which included widespread female emancipation.

3. The reactionary coups that put an end to the second Arab revolution: the Saudi-wahabi and the Ashkenazi-Zionist tongs

This second Arab revolution came abruptly to an end after 1970 with the death of Gamal Abdel Nasser, a man that had been thus far the great protector of Arab Pan-Arabism. A lot has been discussed in the Arab world about Nasser’s death and the suspicion that he was poisoned by the Israeli secret services though a poison put in the oil he regularly used for his massages [the same strong suspicion many Arabs have about Yasser Arafat’s fate in the hands of those same services]. If Nasser died of a heart attack aged 52 as official records tell us, or was murdered, is not relevant here. The relevant fact is that his disappearance from the political scene meant that Pan-Arabism was deprived from its staunchest supporter, and thus it was the beginning of the end of Pan-Arabism.

Although by then each country had taken its own path, after the 1970s, the Pan-Arabic and liberating spirit started being suppressed in the whole Arab and Persian world by reactionary coups, led nearly all of them by military or clergy, ideologically conservative, that started limiting their population’s political and vital space; homogenising the regimes; and assimilating them to a large extent to dictatorships deprived from the rights, freedoms and minimal guarantees provided by the rule of law; dictatorships that resembled very much to the Saudi absolutist monarchy.

In Morocco the big voting frauds of 1963 under Hassan II and the subsequent assassination of Mehdi Ben Barka in Paris in 1965, were followed by attempts to kill the Alawite monarch in 1971, and that unrest could only be settled through finding a common enemy, origin of the Green March on to Western Sahara in 1975.

In Algiers, Huari Bumedian gave a military coup in 1965; and overthrew Ahmed Ben Bella, who was for the supremacy of civil power over military power.

In Tunisia, President Habib Bourguiba started as of 1970 to turn towards more conservative policies, while maintaining ideological moderation and the advanced status of women which had always been characteristic of Tunisia in the Arab world. Zine el Abidine Ben Ali overthrew Habib Bourguiba in 1987 and perpetuated himself in power since then until this month of January 2011.

In Egypt, Mohamed Anuar el Sadat, which succeeded Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1970, abandoned Pan-Arabism and signed the Camp David Agreement with Israel in 1979. And his successor, Hosni Mubarak, followed the same line foreign policy line, reinforcing its dictatorial rule at national level until he was overthrown in 2011.

In Syria, an Alawite military Hafed al-Asad gave a coup d’état in 1970 and established a dictatoriship, in which he was succeeded, at his death in 2000, by his son Bashar al-Asad. And although all Alawites are also Shi’ias, followers of Ibn Nasser, we can’t forget the military and dictatorial nature of the Syrian state.

Lebanon, which was known at the beginning of the 70s as the “Switzerland of the East” for its prosperous economic situation (and which had it continued at that pace could have put Israel in the shade); and where all the religious strands of the main religions of the Middle East tried and continue trying to coexist, went through a terrible civil war from 1975 to 1991.

In Iran, on 11 February 1979, Ruhollah Jomeini [representative of the most extreme Shi’ism and the most staunch ideological opponent of wahabism, its antithesis –“the extremes touch themselves”-] became the Supreme Leader and established Islamic Law or Shari’a.

In Iraq, few months after the political change in Iran, specifically in July of that same year 1979, Saudis and Zionists supported behind the scenes the appointment of Saddam Hussein as President of Iraq with the objective of stopping its unruly Iranian neighbour [that is why Saddam Hussein was allowed and supported when he was fighting against Iran in the 80s, but he was stopped when he attacked Kuwait in 1991, ideologically an ally of Saudi Arabia].

North and South Yemen unified in 1990; and since then its President had been Ali Abdullah Saleh, military, who had been President of North Yemen since 1978.

Contrary to the first Arab revolution which had been aborted by the Franco-British Real Politik, this second Arab revolution was, in my opinion, aborted mainly by regional forces, a Saudi wahabism which had no interest in Pan-Arabism colliding with its tribal mercantilist interests; and supported behind the scenes by Ashkenazi Zionism. Between both forces they made a pair of tongs, understood as two sources of pressure or independent ballasts (the Saudi wahabi ballast and the Zionist Ashkenazi ballast, about which I have spoken at length in previous articles), which came together to ensure a reactionary victory in the area.

It’s important to bear in mind that North Africa West of Tunisia trod increasingly its own path, as did Turkey, or the Gulf monarchies, or the Pakistan-Afghanistan binomial; and all of them will be important actors in the present XXI century dynamics.

4. The Jihadist movements

After the reactionary conservative Governments had become established in the 1970s, putting an end to the liberal and liberating Pan-Arabic movements, two new phenomena started gaining pre-eminence in the 1980s and the 1990s in the Arab world: Jihadism and Islamism.

Chronologically the first of the two phenomena was Jihadism. Some authors prefer to use the term Salafism, instead of Jihadism, but the term Salafism refers specifically to a group of fathers of Islam which came after the Prophet and the purist vision they had of Islam. It is thus a term with strong religious connotations and which can seriously affect susceptibilities when used in the context of a warlike-political analysis; whereas “Jihad” is a term that does imply a war motivated by religious ideals, and it would seem thus more appropriate to qualify the phenomenon that appeared in Afghanistan at the end of the 1970s.

Saudi Arabia was also originally behind the phenomenon of Jihadism, specifically a Saudi wealthy man Osama bin Laden. To be able to contextualise this phenomenon, we must go back to 1978. In April 1978 Nur Mohamed Taraki took power in Afghanistan and he brought for the first time to that country free state education which also included women, land reform, separation of State and Religion, establishment of a minimum wage, banning of opium trade, and legalisation of trade unions. USA and Pakistan supported the toppling of Taraki; and the USSR, which had signed a Treaty of Friendship with Taraki’s Afghanistan, sent its troops into Afghanistan in December 1979. USA started sponsoring rebel groups, through wahabists like Osama bin Laden, which started channelling Jihadist combatants from the whole Arab world towards Afghanistan. These forces fought on the side of the rebels (self-named “Talibans”, which means religious “students”) until the USSR left Afghanistan in 1989. From that moment on the Talibans established in Afghanistan a theocratic absolutist regime, similar to the one that exists in Saudi Arabia.

However, as soon as the war on Afghanistan had ended, thousands of ideologically extremist combatants were “freed”, and they set off to spread their ideology to the rest of the Muslim world. Thus, in Libya the Libyan Jihadists that had returned formed the “Libyan Islamic Fighting Group” at the beginning of the 1990s, which fought against Muamar Gaddafi for years, until he managed to win over them, and expel them from Libya onto Egypt. In Somalia, the toppling of Said Barre in 1991 was the origin of the infiltration of returning Jihadists, who took advantage of the country’s misgovernment and started creating alliances of advantageousness with the local warlords, in a conflict which has carried on for twenty years and has no clear prospects for resolution, having become the Indian Ocean a swarm of pirates grown thanks to that same mismanagement and to the war against the Jihadists from al-Shabaab (“al-Shabaab” means “the youth”).

While what was happening didn’t affect the West, Jihadism was allowed and supported.
What the West didn’t intuit yet was that the Jihadists had a long term plan, which was the destruction of the West, as Jihadists perceived Western democracy as contrary to their ultra orthodox interpretation of Islam. It was following the attacks on the USA Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and above all the attacks on the Twin Towers in USA on 11 September 2001, that USA opened its eyes; and on 7 October 2001 USA started a war on the Taliban (and the Jihadists that still lived there) in Afghanistan, a war in which we are still bogged down in May 2011. The Jihadists were still strong and they stroke another bloody strike in Madrid in March 2004 and another one in London in July 2006, after which came other smaller ones. In a global marketing era the brand the Jihdists took was Al Qaeda [meaning “the base” (for military training)].

I think that even before the Jihadists took off the mask in 1998, they had already acted against Western interests in the Arab world, but they had pinned the blame on somebody else. Thus, uncontrolled Jihadists struck by fanaticism were, in my opinion, behind the assassination of Anuar el Sadat in Egypt in 1981, and behind the attacks on tourist and hotel interests in the summer of 1994 also in Egypt, specially in Cairo [and before the coincidental later tourist development in Sharm Al Sheik, geographically closer to Saudi Arabia and Israel].

5. The Islamist Movement

Both terrorist attacks in Egypt, the one in 1981 and the one in 1994, were quickly labelled, in my opinion in a rather simplistic way, clearly interested in safeguarding the status quo, as Islamists, when, in my opinion, they were also Jihadist actions that sought to create the enemy at home, so as to frighten through terror policies both the local populations in the Arab and Muslim countries, as well as the West.

When they labelled these terrorist attacks as Islamist they meant that behind them was the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood are Sunni Islamists followers of a peaceful doctrine (and specifically because of that repeatedly reviled and criticised by Osama bin Laden), which was elaborated by Hassan al-Banna in 1928; and which was the only ideological-political space Sunni Islamists had after their nobles were expelled from Mecca by the Saudis in 1924.

The Muslim Brotherhood has carried out and carries out in Egypt, above all, social policies. The Islamist movement represents the moderate liberal ideology in political terms, and social justice in economic affairs.

The deterrent effect of the adjective Islamist was also played on by many Arab and non-Arab leaders with little interest in democratising their countries or allowing the democratization of its neighbours, throwing en passant the Arab world into a renewed second wave of repression.

6. The second wave of reactionary coups on the basis of the Islamist ghost

Dictators such as Hosni Mubarak in Egypt or Zine el Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia frequently used the Islamist ghost to continue getting resources from the West to prop up their dictatorships. Zine el Abidine Ben Ali kept the current Secretary General of the Tunisian moderate Islamist party, Hamad Jebali, sixteen years in prison.

A similar strategy was followed by the Algerian military. Thus, when a multi-party system was allowed in 1989 in Algiers, and the moderate Islamist party Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) democratically won the elections in 1991, a military Junta gave a coup d’état; eliminated the FIS; and started a bloody war in Algiers which lasted until 2002, and took an estimated toll of 100.000 lives.

And Saudi Arabia and Israel followed a similar strategy in Palestine, although later on in 2006. In January that year, another Islamist party Hamas won also democratically the Palestinian parliamentary elections. In that moment, neither the West, nor Fatah, nor above all the rest Saudi Arabia and Israel, left any political space for Hamas to articulate a Government and rule in Palestine.

During the 1980s and the 1990s double games were played and double standards were applied, which consisted in supporting the Jihadists and reviling the moderate Islamists. That West has had to pay a high price during the first decade of the XXI century because of that game, which was a groundless and completely unjustified game.

7. The third Arab revolution: 17 December 2010 in Tunisia

This third Arab revolution started on 17 December 2010, when an unemployed young Tunisien, Tarek al Tayyib Mohamed Bouazizi[3] set himself on fire in the tourist city of Sidi Bousaid in Tunisia in front of the municipality as an act of protest against the humiliating way in which the Tunisian police had treated him, confiscating the small wheelbarrow the used for selling fruits and vegetables in the streets.

That day marked the beginning of protests in the streets of Tunisia asking for an end of the dictatorship. The death of Tarek al Tayib Mohamed Bouazizi, as a result of the resulting severe burns, took place in a Tunisian hospital on 4 January 2011; and it brought about the intensification of the protests and the peaceful demonstrations, that reached their peak on 14 January 2011, when the Tunisian people managed to force its dictator, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, into exile. Who was behind that dictator is crystal clear, especially after that country agreed to grant him asylum for an “unlimited time”: Saudi Arabia.

On 25 January 2011 the Egyptian people started trying to emulate the heroic deed of its Tunisian brother and started peaceful demonstrations in the Square of Liberation, “Maydan al-Tahrir” in Cairo. Irrespective of the attempts of President Hosni Mubarak to blacken the positive opinion the international press had on the peaceful demonstrators by allowing his thugs to attack the demonstrators on 2 February, causing over a hundred deaths, he didn’t succeed and he was compelled to leave power on 11 February 2011. In my opinion, it was also Saudi Arabia who was behind the dictatorial rule of Hosni Mubarak in Cairo.

The Tunisian-Egyptian example has set on fire countries like Yemen and Bahrain since February, Syria and Oman since March or Jordan and Morocco more recently. The general characteristic has the violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations, especially in Bahrain, Yemen and Syria [and thus the continuous denunciations by Amnesty International (AI)].
8. The reactionary forces that are against this third Arab revolution being successful

Beyond Saudi wahabism and askenazi Zionism, which, in my opinion, are both still contrary to any democratic revolution in the Arab world, there are other regional forces that are acting against the popular uprisings that are demanding democratisation in their own countries.

8.1. The Qatari-wahabi ballast, the Bahrein-Sunni ballast, and the Omani-Ibadi ballast: the survival of absolutist monarchies

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have something fundamental in common: the wahabi religion of both reigning families.

In the mid 1990s, the Qatari monarchy launched the television channel Al-Jazeera, through which it has become, in an era of globalisation, a regional actor with an independent voice. Al Jazeera has contributed to the information opening in the Arab world with public debates and critical positions on the regimes in power. The red line has always been not to inform critically about anything that could jeopardize Qatari interests. This red line can be easily observed these days watching Al-Jazeera, both in English, and Arabic. These days of revolts in the Arab world, Al-Jazeera won’t inform on the revolts in Oman, and will only provide very limited information on the revolts in Bahrain, while it will be very critical with what is happening in Yemen, Syria and Libya.

And, in my opinion, the red line is set by the Qatari interest (and which unites them very firmly to the Saudis) of maintaining the elitist privileges of the reigning monarchies, and that is what lies behind the staunch support of two other absolutist and dictatorial monarchic regimes: the reigning family of Bahrain, Sunni, not wahabi; and the reigning family of Oman, Ibadi (neither Sunni, nor Shi’ia).

Although Qatari wahabism has placed an apparently very different role to the Saudi one, and A-Jazeera was often critical of the Saudis (that was obviously before the beginning of this third Arab revolution), what is taking place now could end up affecting even the dictatorial systems in the Gulf, and thus the Qatari leadership in taking international attention far away from the area. Thus, while Saudi troops were entering Bahrain mid-March to help the local monarchy violently repress their peaceful demonstrations that were calling for political and social reforms, Qatar became the champion of the Arab position against Libya, adamantly supportive of a no-fly zone, and of bombing. And for weeks television would only inform about what was happening in Misrata, and the atrocities of Manama, the capital of Bahrain, were thus silenced. The same can be said about Oman, where demonstrations take place daily, without us hearing about it here in the West.

That spirit of monarchic comradeship is guided by their willingness to support the continuation of the privileges their despotic regimes, their absolutist monarchies grant them.  The recent invitation by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to Morocco and Jordan (the only two Arab monarchies not part of the GCC) to join them, is done with that same intention.

8.2. The militarist Syrian-Alawite ballast, the militarist Libyan ballast, and the militarist Yemeni ballast: the survival of military who inaugurated lines of succession

The regional example set decades ago by Reza Phalevi, a military who had overthrown the Sha of Persia; had self-proclaimed himself Sha; and had institutionalized the line of succession among his sons, has been an appetising example for other Arab leaders. Hafed al-Assad did it in Syria; and Hosni Mubarak, Muamar el Gaddafi and Ali Abdullah Saleh had the intention of doing the same in Egypt, Libya and Yemen respectively.

The Syrian regime has had in place an Emergency Law uninterruptedly since 1963. The regime rests on a single party (the Baatz party) and on the absolute control by the Alawites (a Shi’ia minority which accounts for only 7% of Syrian population) of all the political and military means.

The Libyan regime is the only survivor of the second Arab revolution, and its leader, Muamar el Gaddafi, was always an uncomfortable guest among his Arab colleagues, as he always denounced, without the slightest political correctness, the double standards Arabs applied to each other. In turn, he had, as nearly all the rest, a militarist dictatorial regime, and his two sons were firm candidates in the line of succession.

The Yemeni regime has evolved towards an autocracy, where Ali Abdullah Saleh had the intention of institutionalising the line of succession on his son, Ahmed Saleh.

At the end of November 2011, the Syrian-Alawite regime simply fights for its survival, without it having any possibility of exerting its deterrent influence against democracy and freedom beyond its borders. In turn, the Yemeni President has spent several months negotiating his immunity, forcing quick-paced meditation processes by the GCC. It is difficult to calculate the death toll until present in Syria and Yemen, but in both cases it is already well beyond three thousand.

Nevertheless, the fact that Libya has been the only country where NATO has decided to intervene has made the scenario even more complicated that in Yemen or Syria, also covered with blood, but Saudi backyard the first one, and Turkish backyard the second one, and thus “unintervenable”. In essence, what Libya has gone through until October 2011 has been a civil war between one part of the Libyan population that fought Gaddafi’s dictatorship with NATO’s  and Jihadist support; and another part of the Libyan population who interpreted this support as neo-colonialism, and although they might not have been satisfied with the existing corruption in the regime, they preferred to support it, rather than supporting what they perceived as oil-driven neo-colonialism.

8.3. North Africa’s militarism: the Algerian-militarist ballast and the Morocco-Alawite ballast

Algeria continues to be under the control of the military which didn’t acknowledge FIS’s victory in the 1991 elections, and continuous to be a non democratic regime.

Morocco has continued to be nearly impervious to democratic reforms until the third Arab revolution has put pressure on the reigning Alawite monarchy to democratise the country.

The terrible relationship existing between Algiers and Morocco adds salt to injury to the unresolved question of Western Sahara, and the growing terrorist violence in the Sahel.

8.4. The Iraqi ballast and the Iranian ballast

Since the contrary to international law USA led intervention in Iraq in 2003 to eliminate Sadam Hussein, a former collaborator turned unpleasant [similar to what happened on 1 May 2011 in relation to Osama bin Laden], Iraq is a constant dripping of human lives. Official figures vary enormously according to the sources. Until April 2009 Associated Press had calculated 110.000 deaths, and although no aggregated data have been found since then (even though there are still deaths taking place every day, and in terrorist attacks on a big scale), it wouldn’t be an exaggeration to assert that the war in Iraq has implied around 130.000 deaths, and two million refugees, in a country which is still prey of sectarian clashes.

The theocratic Iranian Shi’ia dictatorship benefits also from instability in Iraq. Until democracy reaches Iran, Iraq won’t be pacified. And the Kurdish question needs also to be addressed.

8.5. Turkey’s role: its conservative ideology and status quo have the upper hand

Turkey is governed since 2002 by the AKP (the Party for Justice and Development), party which had been created in 2001 after two previously existing Islamist parties had been declared unconstitutional. That is why AKP has insisted from the outset on its conservative ideology (centre-right), which “has no religious base”, as its then and still current leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan put it. Irrespective of that theoretical insistence, AKP is usually considered an Islamist party, ideologically linked in its origin to the Muslim Brotherhood.

However, if Turkey positioned itself last year clearly for the Palestinian cause and the end of the siege to Gaza, sponsoring the June 2010 flotilla, which implied an abrupt spacing out from its traditional ally, Israel; and the joint effort with Brazil for mediation in the Iranian dossier, were depicting a different and differential role of Turkey in the region; the role of Turkey in the current situation, since January 2011, has been different. AKP is above all a conservative party, and is acting accordingly, trying to preserve its elitist interests and the status quo of reactionary forces in the region. This explains the support for the first Saudi and then OIC decision on 8 March (afterwards endorsed by the Arab League) of bombing Libya.

9. The progressive forces that want this third revolution to succeed

9.1. The populations and transitional councils of Tunisia and Egypt

Although people in both countries are aware of the strong drive reactionary forces have, in both they are aware of the huge potential their own push can have.

The Intra-Palestinian Agreement of 3 May 2011, facilitated by Egypt, shows clearly that the deal had been long struck, but there was no willingness on the part of Israel and Saudi Arabia for the deal to be implemented, and that is why its announcement was being delayed for years. A free again Egypt has been able to act as an honest and speedy broker.

9.2. The most progressive monarchic forces: UAE and Kuwait

The third Arab revolution has led some monarchies in the Gulf to collide to hold onto their perks, others on the contrary are moving quickly to solve problems. Kuwait has been specially active in the last months mediating between UAE and Oman; and UAE has been fundamental in the mediation efforts between the Yemeni President and the opposition.

9.3. The Palestinians and the countries more affected by the Palestinian question: Jordan and Lebanon

The Palestinian people, maybe because they have been those that have suffered most in the last sixty years, are maybe the most democratic. The Palestinian people want this revolution to thrive; they want to strike a peace deal; and to be able to create a state: Palestine, which will put an end to sixty years of provisional status.

Whatever happens finally with the Palestinians, will definitely affect two quite democratic countries by regional standards (Jordan and Lebanon); countries which took on and continue to bear the main burden of Palestinian refugees.

9.4. The populations, mainly youth and women, in the whole Arab world

The protagonists of this third revolution are the youth (there are 40 million unemployed youngsters under 25 years in the Arab world) and the women of all those countries.

10. Conclusion

The forces and the powers that are against this third Arab revolution spreading to the whole Arab world, becoming a success, and maybe being the starting point of a new reality in the Mediterranean, and, by extension, in the whole world, are much more numerous.

However, we live in a new era, which has nothing to do with that close in time 2003 when the West was bombing Iraq. I am absolutely convinced that the legitimacy of the popular Arab demands asking for dignity of the human being, basic political democratic freedoms and social justice will succeed. New technologies won’t allow present injustices to perpetuate themselves. Third time, lucky!


[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMahon%E2%80%93Hussein_Correspondence
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bouazizi