The Syrian hell

26.02.2012

In January 2011 the “Arab awakening” started. As it caught the whole world by surprise, there was no possibility to interfere in its first offspring: the Tunisian revolution. It has been the only clear and peaceful case, where people have demonstrated to express their rejection for their dictator, and the dictator has fled. All the other processes have been full of interferences and manipulations from one side or another; and thus the violence and the deaths. And Syria is no exception.

What happens in Syria has evolved from a scenario of violent repression of peaceful demonstrations by an authoritarian regime in March 2011 [as all dictators in the area used to do, and some dictators-monarchs, like the ones in Bahrain, still do] to a scenario of civil war which we currently have.

Why has it degenerated and how?

1. Firstly, the errors committed in Libya have deprived the West of legal efficient mechanisms to act in Syria. United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1973 of March 2011 received the full support of the international community. That resolution enabled to act in Libya to protect civilians, on the basis of the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P), an international principle that had taken many years of immense efforts to become a reality. UNSC Resolution 1973 enshrined R2P, called for international mediation and didn’t explicitly seek regime change. Under the umbrella of that Resolution, and looking down on mediation efforts like those of the African Union, different international actors [France, Turkey, Qatar-Saudi Arabia] started arming the opposition in a conflict that very soon became a civil war, and with NATO coverage, achieved its target of regime change in October 2011 after the assassination of Muammar Gaddafi. Some of the countries that wholeheartedly voted in favour of using the R2P in Libya oppose now being misled again, and they use their veto right at the UNSC. One of the few efficient legal mechanisms to protect civilians in case of violations of human rights has thus evaporated.

2. Secondly, the only strategy followed by the West and the Gulf States towards Syria has been to corner the regime imposing on it conditions from a position of arrogance. And the regimen, using a chess expression, has completely castled. Since May 2011 the West demanded Assad to resign [and at that time nothing similar was demanded from the Yemeni President Saleh who had a similar death toll on his personal account]. Later on, Qataris and Saudis took the lead in the Arab League and started increasing the pressure (an observation mission that as soon as it started showing results was cancelled; boycott of Syrian economy; suspension of Syria from the Arab League, etc.). And the Gulf countries have their own agenda: they are interested in chaos spreading along countries like Iraq or Libya [that way they have no rivals in terms of oil production]; they are interested in Syria being in Sunnite hands [as the current Alawite-Shi’ia regime is their worst enemy (Shi’ia Iran)’s ally]; and they are interested in complicating the democratization processes in the Arab world, so that the idea of Arabs not being capable of living under democratic conditions prevails, and thus they, as autocratic monarchies, may continue to exist happily as islets of autocracy in the world.

3. Thirdly, the excessive wait before acting has allowed for parallel subversive strategies to flourish. As the West was conscious –thanks to some degree of good sense emanating from the economic crisis- that it could not open up several scenarios at the same time, it opted for a sequential strategy, first Libya and then the rest. In the meantime, the most impatient international actors [again France, Turkey and the binomial Qatar-Saudi Arabia] have sought for alternative strategies, more and more violent as time passes.

3.1. At the beginning, Turkey and France tried to replicate the success that the Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC) had had [the TNC was a cosmetically created entity to present the Libyan unity, a unity that in reality never existed as it has been shown by the chaos existing in that country at present]. They supported the Syrian National Council (SNC), led by a Syrian-French; and sought for the international community to recognize them as the sole legitimate interlocutors, so that they could thus start a similar process to that which had taken place in Libya. They haven’s succeeded as we have learnt quite quickly from the Libyan experience [the TNC didn’t represent all, and nor does the SNC]; and because the SNC leaves outside of its remit nearly all minorities in a society which is much more complex than the Libyan.

3.2. The following attempt, sponsored by Turkey, was to open its territory to the deserters of the Syrian army, and organize from there the armed resistance through the Syrian Free Army. We are still there; and thus the violence, and the civil war.

3.3. The third attempt, sponsored by the binomial Qatar-Saudi Arabia [the two countries that ideologically are more extreme in the Sunni world, whose ideology –wahabism- is the one that justifies first and with more strength jihadism and suicide to kill the enemy], is taking the upper hand for some months already, I guess due to their impatience towards the Western stamina-free attitude. They are financially supporting the jihadists to infiltrate Syria and act. Three terrible suicidal attacks on 24 December 2011, 6 January 2012 and 10 February are a witness to that. Even the USA’s Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, warned in mid-February that Al Qaeda could have infiltrated into Syria. And although people don’t like to remember it, Al Qaeda is the heir to the jihadists that went to Afghanistan in the 70s and the 80s to fight against the Soviets, financed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the USA. Later on, they turned against their masters, but ideologically they are still wahabis. Among the jihadists entering Syria there are many Libyans, as it is important not to forget that a considerable part of the Libyan TNC are jihadists, among whom is Belhaj, who have fought against the West in Afghanistan. First, they kill our soldiers in Afghanistan, and parallel to that we support them to overthrow Gaddafi… It’s the world up side down. That is why things are the way they are.

This civil war can still take thousands of lives, although we should put it in perspective. Libya before the intervention had around 6000 deaths, now their death toll is close to 50.000 [and it continues, as reprisals and executions haven’t finished]. So an international intervention would only make the numbers in Syria approach the Libyan numbers of shame.

Having come to this point, can something be done? Yes. I think two things: (1) First, we need to stop accepting double standards; to need to measure every one with the same stick; and we need to demand everyone to move forward towards democratizing their societies. Saudi Arabia harshly represses Shi’ias on their territory, but we don’t demand democracy from them. To be a woman in Syria, even under the bombs, and to be a woman in Saudi Arabia, are two different universes, which model do those women want to prevail in the region? I am sure the first one. To demand change to some and not to others, will only foster the thousand-year-old rows that exist in that region; (2) Secondly, to give a chance to mediation. In Libya it was underestimated from a position of arrogance. Here, to this day, Russia has contacts with the regime and with many of the opposition groups and could mediate to reach a negotiated solution for transition. If pressure is put on the SNC to speak to the regime it can work. Or at least it can and should be tried. The problem are some countries that want to take instant pictures of their victories, for example, will French pride allow some months prior to the Presidential elections to put enough pressure on the SNC to make it talk to the regime through the Russians? It is really sad to see that the lives of Syrian citizens depend on the vested interests of the Gulf monarchies and some other actors, but it is the reality we have created: a profoundly unjust world, full of double standards and of manipulations of all sorts.